Only half as many mobile-connected tablets were shipped in 2014 as Cisco predicted

2015 is the year of the World Radio Conference and WRC-15 is set to be dominated by discussions over Agenda Item 1.1, the allocation and identification of more spectrum for mobile broadband.

Over the last year we have reported that some of the predictions made by the mobile broadband industry – and endorsed by an official ITU Report on the subject – are at least open to question.

One of the major sources of information about the growth of mobile broadband is Cisco’s Visual Networking Index (VNI). This year’s version says that “in 2014, the number of mobile-connected tablets increased 1.6-fold to 74 million”. But last year, Cisco claimed that in 2013 “the number of mobile-connected tablets increased 2.2-fold to 92 million”.

According to Cisco, the mis-match follows from the way the VNI is calculated. Effectively, in 2014 Cisco thought that the number of mobile-connected devices in 2013 was 92 million, but when operators and vendors published their results later on in the year, it turned out there were only 46.8 million, an increase of five million from 2013 (or a 1.1-fold increase).

Cisco reckons this is mainly because consumers are opting for Wi-Fi-only tablets over ones fitted with an LTE plan. “Higher cost of cellular chips have driven this market down combined with expensive data plans,” a spokesperson said. “Users have not upgraded or refreshed their tablets as per earlier expectations.”

The production of ever-lighter laptops is also deemed to have dampened demand for these tablets.

Cisco said that its new 74 million prediction assumes that operators will improve their commercial offerings and that this will lead to further growth in the market, particularly in developing countries where there is less Wi-Fi penetration.

The question for spectrum managers is whether this matters when it comes to deciding how many and which frequencies should be allocated for mobile broadband at WRC-15. The impressive growth of the mobile broadband industry is not in doubt. The stunning results of the AWS-3 auction in the US earlier this year shows investors certainly believe that this growth will continue and that access to spectrum will be an important part of that.

But sometimes you have to wonder: if understanding the present is so difficult, what does that say about predicting the future?

Toby Youell, PolicyTracker

12/3/2015