Weekly wrap: My predictions for 2026

Smart Lego bricks aside, watching company after company roll out yet another AI‑powered something at CES 2026 this week left a lingering sense of underwhelm.

For spectrum and telecoms policy, the bombastic launches only underline how flat the show floor feels: plenty of “AI‑everywhere” connectivity marketing, but very little that looks like telecoms market-altering products.

Once the smoke machine clears in Las Vegas, the real action this year will be in the slow, political work of 6G positioning, WRC‑27 preparation, and the grinding details of coverage, resilience and satellite coexistence. My five predictions for the coming year are as follows:

1. 6G will move to the foreground of spectrum politics

By the end of 2026, 6G will still be pre‑standard, but the spectrum debate about it will be very real. Regulators will be under pressure to “reserve” parts of the upper mid‑band and lower band spectrum for 6G even though 5G still feels unfinished.​

Governments will start to hardwire 6G into industrial and AI strategies, positioning spectrum as enabling infrastructure rather than a narrow telco issue.

The GSMA’s push for roughly 2–3 GHz of additional mid‑band (3.8–4.2 GHz, 4.4–4.99 GHz, upper 6 GHz, 7–8 GHz) will increasingly frame national roadmap discussions, even where there is no political appetite for another 3.5 GHz‑style clearance.

​2. Unlicensed spectrum, Wi‑Fi and more sharing?

Now that Europe has made up its mind and wants to roll out mobile services in the upper 6 GHz band, the Wi‑Fi sector is expected to shift its focus to managing congestion and new generations like Wi‑Fi 8/9. ​

In the US, the Federal Communications Commission started the year by introducing geofenced variable power (GVP) devices in the 6 GHz band. The decision marks a significant expansion of the unlicensed toolkit, enabling higher‑power, often outdoor Wi‑Fi for AR/VR, hotspots and automation while relying on geofencing and exclusion zones to protect incumbents. Will it have a similar impact to automated frequency coordination (AFC)?

Similarly, today, the UK published its plans for the 6 GHz band. The regulator, Ofcom, plans to allow outdoor and higher power Wi-Fi in the lower 6 GHz band, using AFC systems, and proposes to extend AFC systems to include the use of the upper 6 GHz band. It remains to be seen if other administrations will explore UK‑style and US‑style sharing approaches.

3. A year of hard choices for WRC-27

ITU‑R studies for WRC‑27 are scheduled to run through 2026, and that calendar will dominate ministries and regulators long before delegates land at the conference venue. The 2026 meetings will convert technical studies into actual negotiation lines.​

Interregional WRC‑27 workshops in late 2026 will be the first real visibility point on whether more IMTInternational Mobile Telecommunications (I… or more satellite narratives are winning in key bands.​

Expect sharper regional splits on the upper 6 GHz band, additional mid‑band spectrum for IMT and satellite service protections, with Europe and parts of Asia trying to preserve flexibility while others lock into clearer positions.

4. Coverage, DNA and market structure

The Digital Networks Act (DNA) will supposedly be published later this month. With this in mind, could this year be the year Europe’s coverage and investment debate stops being abstract and starts to crystallise into law and market structure?

France is likely to become the headline case study for in‑market consolidation, as pressure builds around SFR’s future and a potential move from four to three mobile network operators forces EU and member state authorities to decide how serious they are about facilitating “scale for investment”.

With more than 500 European spectrum licences due for renewal in the next decade, governments are eagerly waiting to see how far DNA principles will stretch. Longer licence terms, lighter annual fees, coverage‑heavy obligations and more harmonised award designs are all still on the table.

​5. Satellites and direct‑to‑device

This year, low Earth orbit systems and direct‑to‑device (D2D) satellite services are projected to leave the test and trial phase to become structural features of the electronic communications landscape. This could force regulators to create frameworks for cross-technology coexistence and possibly to think harder about consumer protection.​

D2D investments will drive debates over MSSMobile-satellite service (MSS) describes a…, mobile bands at the edge of their allocations, and how to handle interference and liability when a cell tower is a moving object.

Here’s what PolicyTracker covered this week:

• Australian regulator ACMA has set the fees for renewing a swathe of expiring spectrum licences at A$7.3 billion ($4.9 billion), an increase from its previous proposal
• Georgian operator, Celfie Mobile, hasb secured 2.1 GHz, 2.6 GHz spectrum in an auction
• Malaysia has auctioned the 1800 MHz and the 2.6 GHz bands
• Belgium has delayed FM switch-off amid concerns about its potential economic and social impact
• PolicyTracker interviewed the spectrum manager for the EU Space Programme at the European Commission about the EU’s priorities at WRC-27
• Data gathered by our sister publication SignalTracker in its first year of operation suggests that 5G standalone is still a rare phenomenon

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