Podcast: The future of spectrum auctions 

In this podcast, Richard Marsden, Managing Director for NERA Economic Consulting, speaks to PolicyTracker journalist Camilla Mina about what auctions will look like in a few years.

Since 1999, Marsden has advised buyers and sellers on format designs and bid strategies in more than 100 auctions in 30 different countries. 

Although the advent of 6G (and, in the European Union, the Digital Networks Act) could change the way spectrum is allocated, Marsden predicts that auction formats are unlikely to change radically. 

He says that we will probably “see a lot more clock auctions” and fewer simultaneous multiple-round auctions. Combinatorial clock auctions will probably no longer be used at all.

Marsden thinks auctions will remain the norm for spectrum assignment until the mid-2030s. Licence renewals, on the other hand, might change, such as through automatic renewals. There could be fewer auctions for spectrum where licences are expiring, with direct renewals being used instead.

As satellite services gain in importance, similar auction formats to the one currently being used for mobile services could very well be used for satellite spectrum. The Ka and Ku bands could become so congested that some kind of pricing mechanism might be needed to convince users to migrate. This will be different from the kind of auctions that we have now.

Spectrum trading could increase in the future, with more flexibility to allocate spectrum between different users. However, this scenario is at least a decade away, Marsden says.

Listen to the full episode for free below, or find us on your favourite podcast platform – just search for “PolicyTracker”.