Our report on future spectrum trends for the Dutch Ministry

PolicyTracker, along with Dr William Webb, is pleased to have completed a report for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. We presented the results to stakeholders yesterday and the document can be downloaded here.

The research aim was to identify the social and technological developments which will have the biggest impact on frequency use, frequency users and spectrum policy over the next 10 years.

These are the nine trends we highlighted:

1. Growth in mobile data use is declining
2. Declining use of DTT
3. New services in the satellite industry
4. Stakeholders call for more spectrum for 6G
5. A change from symmetric to asymmetric data usage suggests defragmenting sub-GHz bands
6. Geopolitical developments are creating more spectrum demand for the defence industry
7. Growing use of unlicensed applications
8. Increased use of advanced spectrum sharing technologies
9. Increased interest in private wireless networks

We argued that in recent years spectrum policy is becoming increasingly influenced by external factors such as military conflict, political volatility, cybersecurity, climate change and the drive for digital self-sufficiency. This is in contrast to the previous 20 years where spectrum policy was dominated by growing digital demand, particularly for mobile data.

We thought the cumulative effect of these tends was to make more spectrum available for IMTInternational Mobile Telecommunications (I…, particularly in 600 MHz and the upper 6 GHz, and to exert greater pressure towards spectrum sharing, especially between the defence and commercial sectors.

The report concludes by suggesting policy options to address these trends. It will be an input for the Ministry’s new Frequency Policy Note which will replace the current 2016 version.