Spectrum demand projections: the devil is in the data

This week, we published another article concerning the so-called “spectrum crunch”.

It reported on new research claiming that the ITU-R’s most recent estimated demand for spectrum for mobile broadband is at least 100 times too high. It also looked at the possible reasons for this, including confirmation bias, and the need to consider market forces.

We have reported a few times now on doubts about the mobile data demand projections in ITU-R Report M.2290, which identifies the need for as much as 1960 MHz of spectrum for mobile broadband by 2020 in high density demand situations. The report was produced in December last year as part of the preparations for WRC-15, and builds on a similar report, M.2078, which was produced in 2006.

Some commentators, such as the GSMA, argue that the data take account of peak demand. In any case, one could argue, does it matter if the projections are too high? After all, it’s just another ITU-R document.

But this week, 4G Americas used Report M.2078 as part of its attempts to persuade Latin American countries to assign more spectrum. According to a statement from the organisation, by 2013 “only 21% of spectrum in Latin America was allocated compared to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) recommendations of 1300 MHz by 2015 to enable the rapid development of mobile broadband technologies”.

Aside from being practically impossible, the assignment of 1300 MHz for mobile broadband in Latin America by 2015 would also be problematic from the point of view of international coordination. According to recent analysis by LS Telcom, only 955 MHz of spectrum is allocated to IMT in Region 2, and of that, only 540 MHz is notionally harmonised and therefore commercially feasible.

When reports are adopted by the highest body in spectrum management, the ITU-R, interest groups can cite the figure as agreed upon globally. Despite growing concern about their accuracy, the findings are seen as legitimate.

It is never possible to get predictions perfectly correct, especially on a global scale. But the trouble with this particular report’s projections is that the ITU-R’s status appears to legitimise the findings, despite their inevitable imperfections. 

Toby Youell, PolicyTracker

30/10/2014